Comparison of TAMS/RT Surface Wind, Temperature, and Pressure Fields With Surface Observations and Model Analyses in the Socal Area

This is a NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA report procured by the Pentagon and made available for public release. It has been reproduced in the best form available to the Pentagon. It is not spiral-bound, but rather assembled with Velobinding in a soft, white linen cover. The Storming Media report number is A203473. The abstract provided by the Pentagon The Tactical Atmospheric Modeling System/Reat Time (TAMS/RT) combines the high-resolution Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) and the Tactical Environmental Data Server (TEDS). In this study, we evaluate TAMS/RT sea level pressure, 10 meter (m) winds and 2 m air temperature fields generated at the Naval Pacific Meteorology Oceanography Center (NPMOC) in San Diego. We qualitatively compare outer nest (45 and 54 kms) sea level pressure 12 and 24-hour forecasts with model analyses. Then we quantitatively compare surface observations with inner nest (5 and 6 kms) model wind (u and v) and temperature forecast fields (00, 06, 12, 18, and 24-hour). Contrary to expectations, we found no error growth through the forecast cycle and relatively high error in the initial analysis for all variables. When examined by 0000Z and 1200Z model runs, we found a repetitive pattern related to the diurnal cycle which impact use by a forecaster. We link day to day error to the diurnal pattern and larger magnitude error to cold starts, background fields, and data assimilation problems. We observed high variability among observed and model values but still found various model trends that require further evaluation.